NEW DELHI – India’s move to renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty, a 62-year-old water-sharing agreement with Pakistan that has withstood three wars, is the latest signal that water conflict is on a slow boil in South Asia.
India sent a notice on Jan 25 to Pakistan seeking renegotiation of the treaty, which governs water-sharing for six rivers – Indus, Chenab, Jhelum, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej.
Water-sharing is a sensitive issue in South Asia, where river systems often criss-cross borders.
The treaty divides the six rivers equally between the two countries, but gives Pakistan control over 80 per cent of the Indus water system. But Pakistan, which is downstream, has continued to feel vulnerable and has objected to Indian projects on the rivers under its control.
The trigger for the latest round of disagreements is the 330MW Kishanganga project on the Jhelum river and the 850MW Ratle project on the Chenab river.
Over the last decade, Pakistan has objected many times to the construction of the two Indian hydropower projects, contending it would impact water flow and change the course of the rivers. India has maintained that they are “run-of-the-river” projects” allowed under the treaty.
The World Bank, which is a guarantor under the treaty, had started a parallel process of appointing a neutral expert and also initiated proceedings at the arbitration court.
India, which favours the dispute going before a neutral expert first, has boycotted the proceedings and has instead sought to amend the Indus treaty.
“This notice was issued with the intent to provide Pakistan an opportunity to enter into government-to-government negotiations to rectify ongoing material breach of the treaty,” said Mr Arindam Bagchi, the spokesman for India’s Ministry of External Affairs.
He also said the World Bank is in no position to interpret the treaty, which as per India’s reading allows for a “graded approach” in tackling disagreements.
Ties between the two countries nosedived after 2016, when India blamed Pakistan for a terror attack in which 19 soldiers were killed in Kashmir. Following the attacks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had warned that “blood and water can’t flow together at the same time”, in reference to the treaty.
As the upper riparian, India has the advantage of being able to divert water from Pakistan, but it has so far refrained from using water as a strategic tool despite longstanding tensions with Islamabad over cross-border terrorism. But India’s demand to renegotiate the treaty is a veiled reminder that it can.
“What New Delhi is trying to do is to signal (with the notice to renegotiate) to Pakistan that India has options that it hasn’t explored as far as this treaty is concerned, and that its traditional stand on this treaty shouldn’t be taken for granted,” said Professor Harsh V. Pant, vice-president of studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation.
“India is pushing hydropower in the region and it wants Pakistan to realise that India may be willing to go the extra mile in securing its interest (in building hydropower projects).”
While India has the upper hand with Pakistan, it is in the exact opposite position with China, a close Pakistan ally that India has testy ties with.
China is building a dam that its state-run media Global Times reported would be bigger than the Three Gorges Dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, a cross-border river that flows into India, where it is called the Brahmaputra.
“India will also have to take into account the impact this will have on what India has also blamed China for, which is China using water resources in rivers as a strategic weapon,” noted Prof Pant.
Water-sharing can be tricky even among the friendliest of neighbours. For instance, India and Bangladesh share close ties but have been unable to come to a water-sharing agreement on Teesta, a major river.
Experts believe that the updating of the India-Pakistan water treaty will be complicated.
“The Indus Water Treaty definitely needs to be upgraded and rethought,” said Dr Medha Bisht, an associate professor at the Department of International Relations at the South Asian University in New Delhi.
“The idea of water has expanded (since the 1960s). It is not just about water flows in quantitative terms. It is also the quality of water, the biodiversity, flora and fauna.
“The Indus Water Treaty structure is there. You can innovate (by including issues of climate change and ecology), but for that, political will is needed.”
South Asia’s Water Woes
Pakistan
Under the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan was given control over three western rivers – Indus, Chenab and Jhelum – that flow from India into Pakistan. India was given rights over the three eastern rivers of Beas, Ravi and Sutlej. Large parts of Pakistan depend on the Indus water system for irrigation and hydropower. The country has, over the years, objected to India building hydropower projects on the western rivers. India claims the projects will not impact water flow.
China
India is concerned with Chinese dam-building activities on the Yarlung Tsangpo river that flows from Tibet into India, where it is called the Brahmaputra, and then into Bangladesh. The two countries do not have a water-sharing agreement, but China provides hydrological data to India during the flood season that falls between May and October. China approved a mega dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in November 2022 amid border tensions. The dam is less than 50km from the Indian border, giving rise to fears that it will impact water flow.
Bangladesh
India and Bangladesh share good relations, but even then, they have been unable to strike a deal on water-sharing for the river Teesta. Bangladesh is seeking “equitable distribution” of river water which passes through Wester Bengal, and the two sides drafted plans for India to get 42.5 per cent of the water and Bangladesh 37.5 per cent. The agreement was close to being signed several times, but was bogged down by domestic politics. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, for one, objected on the grounds that the Teesta’s water level is falling and sharing water with Bangladesh would hurt farming in the state.
