ISLAMABAD (BLOOMBERG) – To avoid losing a no-confidence vote in Parliament, Pakistan leader Imran Khan instead triggered an unprecedented political crisis. Now the question is whether voters will reward him at the next election.
In a series of events on Sunday (April 3) that stunned Pakistan, a member of Mr Khan’s party scrapped the parliamentary vote over alleged foreign interference before the Prime Minister swiftly called an election in a nationally televised address. The President, another Khan ally, dissolved Parliament shortly afterwards.
The opposition was livid. Mr Shehbaz Sharif, who was set to take power after the vote, said Mr Khan should be charged with treason since the Constitution forbids the dissolution of Parliament during a no-confidence debate.
Even Mr Khan’s deputy attorney general resigned, calling the moves “illegal” and saying the former cricket star “made a mockery of the constitution”.
Now Pakistan’s Supreme Court will decide whether Mr Khan gets his wish for an election, or whether the no-confidence vote should proceed. A three-judge panel said it would review arguments on Monday.
But no matter what they eventually decide, Pakistan needs to hold a national vote by August 2023 – and Mr Khan is betting the drama on Sunday will help him return to power. The President said Mr Khan will continue as prime minister until a caretaker is appointed.
“Its a move to try and survive,” said Dr James Dorsey, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“Clearly he feels comfortable that he can win another election.”
Mr Khan’s manoeuvring is about more than just his own political future: It also has geopolitical implications. To justify his move to circumvent the no-confidence vote, Mr Khan has repeatedly blamed foreign interference from the United States despite the Biden administration’s denials.
That will make it harder for Mr Khan to repair ties with the US if he hangs on, likely pushing Pakistan even closer to China and Russia. It also raises questions about talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over releasing funds from a loan needed to shore up Pakistan’s foreign reserves and tame Asia’s second-fastest inflation.
Mr Khan put the IMF programme in jeopardy by cutting domestic fuel and power prices to temper public anger over rising living costs. The uncertainty has roiled markets in recent weeks, with the nation’s default risk climbing and the rupee trading at a record low against the US dollar.
Mr Khan’s opponents have vowed to improve relations with the West if they win power, and General Qamar Javed Bajwa – Pakistan’s army chief – on Saturday called for better US relations.
Tensions had risen recently between Mr Khan and the army, which has ruled Pakistan for nearly half of its history, over his anti-US foreign policy and opposition to a key military promotion.
Mr Khan, however, is not going down without a fight. As coalition allies abandoned him in the days ahead of the vote, he vowed a “big surprise” and referenced his days on Pakistan’s cricket team: “A captain always has a plan.”
On Saturday he drew parallels between himself and Imam Hussain, a grandson of Prophet Muhammad who was killed in the medieval battle of Karbala. His own political fight was to show “people the difference between the truth and falsehood,” Mr Khan said on Twitter.
Still, many Pakistani constitutional experts saw Mr Khan as clearly in the wrong for the move to shut down the no-confidence motion.
The document was amended in 2010 to prevent this precise scenario by forbidding the dissolution of Parliament’s Lower House until a vote took place.
Explaining the moves to party members on Sunday afternoon, Mr Khan again referenced evidence of US interference and said defectors from his party met with American Embassy personnel. The no-confidence motion, he said, was “all foreign planned to interfere in Pakistan’s politics”.
Mr Khan has little to lose by bringing Pakistan to the brink of a constitutional crisis. Now his party can claim to be on the side of the average citizen in pushing for an election, even though opposition parties have been calling for a vote since last year.
If the judges rule in Mr Khan’s favour, it will further legitimise his attacks on the opposition before the next national vote. And if the court rules against him, Mr Khan can continue to raise the issue of foreign interference while constantly pressing for a new election. It is unclear whether Pakistan’s voters will buy the foreign conspiracy line.
A Gallup poll in February showed Mr Khan’s approval rating dropped to 36 per cent from 40 per cent in 2018, while that of Mr Nawaz Sharif – Mr Shehbaz’s brother, a former prime minister now in self-exile in London – more than doubled to 55 per cent in that time.
Mr Khan’s latest moves show his “desperation” and “a lot of disappointment has set in” among the public, according to Mr Burzine Waghmar, a member of the Centre for the Study of Pakistan at SOAS University of London.
“Khan is out of his depth and grabbing at straws in the wind,” he said. “If anything people will lodge a protest vote against him.”
